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Housing Trends in the USA
In the March issue of The Atlantic, one of America's premier intellectual magazines, there is a fascinating article by a fellow named Christopher B. Leinberger about housing trends in the United States. It is called, "The Next Slum." The gist of this article traces a shift in housing patterns that has great import whether you have never owned a home and are thinking of buying your first one, are considering selling your present home and moving into a different kind of setting, or just selling the home you have had for forty years so you can find something smaller. The trend during the past 60 years, Leinberger notes, has been one of people seeking stand-alone houses out in the suburbs. However, that is changing. People are now moving from the suburbs, where they had to drive miles and miles for work, shopping and entertainment, into more convenient and self-contained communities where they could walk to many of the amenities they seek. Leinberger predicts that in forty years, many of the suburbs where we now so happily mow our lawns and live in expansive homes, are going to become more and more like slums as in increasing numbers people follow the trends now developing. He cites a shift in real estate values as part of his evidence. For instance, a luxury detached home in Westchester County, which over my life has always been considered one of the luxury suburbs of New York City, is presently selling for around $375 per square foot. At the same time, he notes, a luxury condo in White Plains, which he says is New York's biggest suburb, now sells for $750 per square foot. He also discusses the fact that many developers are now buiilding more and more smaller units in the sort of more self-contained community areas which the author of the Atlantic article claims is the trend of the future. He notes that Boomers are now becoming "empty nesters" whose children have grown up and are moving away. These Boomers are opting for smaller, more convenient domiciles. One of the other facts that he says supports his contention that the conventional stand-alone home "suburbs" are going to become tomorrow's slums is the fact that a century ago houses were solidly built, whereas 60 years ago houses started being built in much less substantial ways out of much less substantial materials. I see this in my own home, where half the house is seventy years old -- solid, strong, probably able to withstand another 70 years -- while the new addition we had put on 15 years ago is already requiring major work. Check it out. "The Next Slum" by Christopher Leinberger, The Atlantic, March 2008. pp 70-75. There may be more material about this on the Atlantic's website, www.theatlantic.com |
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